New Zealand had its first batch of major economic data for the year last week, with the release of our latest inflation numbers (for the December 2025 quarter).
Annual inflation is now sitting at 3.1%—up from ever so slightly outside the Reserve Bank’s 1%-3% target range.
While it’s not high enough to really set off alarm bells, it’s not ideal—suggesting that inflation perhaps isn’t as under control as we’d like it to be.
What do the latest inflation numbers mean for interest rates?
Interest rates are still expected to remain relatively flat for most of 2026—but it’s worth noting that the next move looks more likely to be up than down.
We’ve got our first Official Cash Rate (OCR) announcement for the year coming up on 18 February, and most are picking a ‘no change’ verdict from the Reserve Bank (RBNZ), leaving us at 2.25%.
Off the back of that inflation news, though, parts of the market have brought forward their timeline for projected OCR hikes—and are now pricing them in for late 2026, rather than early 2027.
What should borrowers be thinking about in this environment?
It’s always a good idea to chat with an expert mortgage adviser for guidance on the approach that’s going to work best for you and your personal situation.
Generally speaking, though, two- and three-year fixed rates are the sweet spot at the moment—giving you access to interest rate certainty over the medium term, with the potential to still lock in below 5%.
The best rates on offer in that space right now are with BNZ, which is offering a two-year rate of 4.51% and a three-year rate of 4.81%. Across the other main banks, you’re looking at 4.69% for two years and 5.09% for three.
Check back in again next week for the latest on New Zealand interest rates.
