BNZ Markets Outlook says nearly every leading indicator suggests that the peak in expansion in the recovery is already upon us.
"If it's all downhill from here then folk have good reason to be unsettled. If instead, the correction we are seeing simply intimates that growth will not accelerate but rather steady at a modest rate then there is little reason for angst."
It believes it is inappropriate for the central bank to leave its foot firmly planted on the monetary accelerator.
Westpac Weekly Commentary says any concerns the Reserve Bank may have had about a tighter labour market provoking early wage rises and higher inflation will have evaporated after last week's releases.
"It's clear that for now the risks are being realised more on the downside so we have adopted a slightly more modest tightening profile with a pause to assess the landscape penciled in for December and January."
ANZ Market Focus says looking back at the Reserve Bank's July assessment and their repeated comments towards interest rates being very supportive, prospects appear tilted towards another hike.
However it says that will be a very challenging PR exercise, particularly if the dataflow does not pick up prior to the September Monetary Policy Statement.
"We now think the odds of a hike in September have fallen to a 50 - 50 proposition, although our core view remains tilted to a hike."
ASB Business Weekly says the Reserve Bank has not only had to contend with labour figures but also the pulling back of Fonterra's forecast payout of wholesale interest rates.
"Recall that prior to all of this, the Reserve Bank had already revised down its growth outlook and these factors add another blow."
It is now expecting the Reserve Bank will not lift the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the October and December meetings. In addition it now expects the OCR will reach 4.5% next year instead of 5%.
J.P. Morgan Weekly Prospects says the absence of a compelling growth story notwithstanding, it expects the Reserve Bank to continue normalising policy over the coming quarters.
"With the cash rate still low at 3%, the hurdles the data must clear to justify tightening also are low."
