The July total was also down from June in seasonally adjusted terms.
But it would be a big mistake to take these as signs the housing market is weakening.
While the 2,621 consents in July worth $473.5 million were down from the 2,738 worth $417.3 million granted in July last year, they were well up on the 2,386 worth $414.1 million granted in June. In seasonally adjusted terms, July consents were down 9% from June.
The number of consents in July was also the third highest total of any month in the past two years.
And, as Statistics New Zealand notes, excluding consents for new apartments, the July total is the highest since it began collating statistics in this form in 1990. Non-apartment consents accounted for 90% of this July’s total compared with only 75% in July last year.
There were 273 consents for new apartments issued in July, up from 271 in June and down from 686 in July last year. For the year ended July 2003, there were 5,556 new apartment approved, up 1,891, or 52%, compared with the year ended July 2002.
Total consents for the year at 28,951 were up 23% on the 23,581 issued in the year ended July 2002. This year’s total is the highest number recorded in a July year since 1976.
Consents increased in most regions in July compared with July last year, although they fell in both Auckland and Wellington. Nevertheless, Auckland still accounted for 38% of consents this July.
Darren Gibbs, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, notes that strong activity in sales of existing homes (the latest Real Estate Institute figures show 10,138 houses sold in July, up from 9,790 in June and 7,795 in July last year) tends to lead new housing consents by about five months. That "suggests that dwelling consent issuance will remain firm over the near-term, especially with available listings (with real estate agents) at very low levels."
As well, Gibbs notes the average value of non-apartment consents was 7.1% higher than a year ago on a three-month moving average basis. The REINZ figures showed the national median house price in July was 14.2% higher than a year earlier while Quotable Value New Zealand’s figures showed house prices in the June quarter were 14.2% higher than a year earlier.
