The Reserve Bank quarterly monetary policy statement proved to be a “steady as she goes” announcement last week, with most analysts now picking the official cash rate will remain at 6.75% until mid-2006 and thus providing little hope for lower floating rates in the near future.
The central bank continued its hawkish tone as it waits to gauge the impact higher oil prices will have on the economy as it contemplates annual inflation nudging 4%.
Few market economists are forecasting the RBNZ will act on its hawkish stance. In fact, most see the central bank switching to an easing cycle next year as predicted slower growth eventuates.
The post-election dramas will keep the country on tenterhooks for a couple of weeks at least, as Helen Clark meets and negotiates with the smaller parties in the hopes of creating a coalition or minority Government.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has the markets’ attention this week. Generally the world’s dealers expect the Fed to raise rates on Wednesday morning New Zealand time and this has ramifications for the local interest rate market and how attractive the Kiwi yield curve remains for overseas investors.
Plus, information on how the Fed intends dealing with inflationary pressure from Hurricane Katrina and higher oil prices may provide some insight into RBNZ strategies on the same problem.
Looking at mortgage rate changes in the last week, at the longer end of the market HSBC cut its four- and five-year rate to 7.40%, while BankDirect trimmed its three-year rate to 7.25% and its five-year rate to 7.2%.
Now three-year rates range from BankDirect and Kiwibank’s 7.25% to Westpac’s capped rate of 8.40%.
Four-year rates are spread much more narrowly between between Kiwibank’s 7.35% and Silver Fern and NZ Mortgage Funds’ 7.75%, while five-year rates range from BankDirect’s new 7.2% to GEM Home Loans’ 8%.
Not all the week’s moves were lower – Asteron, Premier and United had short-term rate increases, Resi edged its rates higher, while Equitable put some of its rates up and some down.
BNZ increased the two- and three-year rates on its Classic product to 7.60% and 7.55%, respectively. Classic is the home loan it has been using in the Unbeatable campaign, as opposed to the standard loan which has Fly Buys and Global Plus points attached.
Late last week Bank of New Zealand chief economist Tony Alexander added a second suggestion that the chance of a “good discounted rate” may eventuate in spring mortgage campaigns to his hint of something afoot 10 days ago. Considering BNZ’s track record of discounting, watch this space.
