Overall credit growth was just 0.1% in February while lending on mortgages grew $189 million, down from the $379 million growth in January, and was up just 1.2% on February last year.
Credit growth has been just 0.1% in five of the last six months and the odd month out showed zero growth.
In contrast, total household deposits rose $355 million in the month and were up 8.5% on February last year.
The credit numbers are seemingly at odds with other figures such as the central bank's mortgage approvals data, which shows approvals running at 18.2% higher than at the same time last year and rising house sales.
“There's definitely more turnover going on but, seemingly, it's people with money selling to other people with money rather than new buyers entering the market,” says Darren Gibbs at Deutsche Bank.
“We're not seeing a lot of young people who would be drawing down big mortgages.”
Nevertheless, “it's definitely healthier out there.” When the credit figures do start to show reasonable growth, “it will tell you about a genuine improvement in consumer sentiment,” he says.
Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, says his bank has noticed a strong increase in mortgage inquiries lately “but not a great deal of increase in draw downs” and the latest figures suggest this is true of the wider market.
Stephens says one reason for low credit growth is that mortgage rates are so low that those with existing mortgages are repaying them at an accelerated rate.
But the figures may be dampened and the true rate of growth masked by insurance payouts in Christchurch – the Earthquake Commission has paid out $3 billion so far, he says.
There's a lag between the payouts being made and repaid or rebuilding work completed and the banks hold the money in the meantime.
“That's likely to continue to affect these numbers through the course of 2012. It's going to make them low lower than they really are,” Stephens says.
Conversely, the credit figures through 2013 and 2014 are likely to be inflated and indicate higher growth than is actually occurring, he says.
