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Experts' Views
Monday, February 28th, 4:28PM
Mortgage rates are "set to fall dramatically" as a result of the destructive Christchurch earthquake which hit last week, according to some economists.
ANZ, Westpac, ASB, Deutsche Bank and the markets are all expecting the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to be cut by the Reserve Bank at next Thursday's Monetary Policy Statement. BNZ and J P Morgan however expect the OCR to hold until 2012.
In Property Focus, ANZ says it expects the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR by 25 basis points in both March and April with floating rates falling back to last year's levels...MORE»
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Monday, February 14th, 4:39PM
The market has pushed out its expectations for the first Official Cash Rate (OCR) hike to October as a result of ongoing weak domestic activity data.
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Monday, February 7th, 5:03PM
Last week's unemployment figures were disappointing and even led some commentators to suggest the Official Cash Rate (OCR) might move downward, however bank economists do not believe that will be the case.
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Previous News
Friday, February 4th, 10:38AM
BNZ has pushed back its view on when the official cash rate (OCR) will increase from June to September, joining the predictions of ASB and Westpac.
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Tuesday, February 1st, 6:06AM
In a nutshell inflation is driven by growth versus economic slack and analysing these areas brings to light a reduced chance that the official cash rate (OCR) will increase in June making September more likely.
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Wednesday, January 19th, 11:51AM
Bank economists are shifting their views further out on the Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase with ASB now joining Westpac in predicting a September hike.
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Tuesday, December 21st, 5:30PM
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Friday, November 19th, 10:42AM
If the intention of borrowers all along has been to sit floating simply waiting for the low point in fixed rates then BNZ economist Tony Alexander says he would be inclined to fix now.
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Thursday, October 21st, 12:39PM
Economists do not expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to increase next week, with third quarter inflation being well-behaved in the middle of the Reserve Bank's target range at 1.5% and with retail sales in August and house prices last month printing weak results.
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Monday, October 11th, 5:42PM
Borrowers should stay floating until someone comes along and offers a really attractive fixed rate says BNZ economist Tony Alexander, explaining how attractive that rate would have to be.
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The OCR ain't going anywhere
The new Reserve Bank governor, Graeme Wheeler, predicts that the official cash rate won't by going anywhere until 2014.
This is clear from the 90-day bank bill forecast graph in the December Monetary Policy Statement. It shows clearly how over the past year forecast increases kept getting pushed down each quarter.
A year ago the bank was predicting the 90-day bill rate would be up at 4.00% by March 2014. That forecast was wound back to 3.3% in March, 3.2% three months later and is now down at 2.8%.
The good news for borrowers is that, asssuming things pan out as forecast, then home loan rates aren't likely to be going up any time soon either.
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