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Earthquake could result in OCR cut

All the news focus is currently on the Christchurch earthquake and our thoughts are with readers in that region.

Thursday, February 24th 2011, 3:21PM

The devastation is going to have a major economic impact. Banks have offered loan relief and just this morning ASB and the Deutsche Bank suggested that the Reserve Bank should cut the OCR by 50 basis points on March 10. Other economists expect the OCR to hold until 2012.

This week we have started to get the bank general disclosure documents for the December quarter. These make interesting reading to see how each organisation is going in the home loan market. However, Westpac has changed the way it reports its numbers, and in our view made a mockery of the reporting system.

We also saw some movement with mortgage rates late last week as Kiwibank reduced its six-month rate by 40 basis points to 5.95% as a special.  HSBC also cut its six-month rate to below 5% with conditions.

For brokers, particularly those becoming authorised, we have a new Blog from the Securities Commission to provide up-to-date information on the regulatory process.

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The OCR ain't going anywhere

The new Reserve Bank governor, Graeme Wheeler, predicts that the official cash rate won't by going anywhere until 2014.

This is clear from the 90-day bank bill forecast graph in the December Monetary Policy Statement. It shows clearly how over the past year forecast increases kept getting pushed down each quarter.

A year ago the bank was predicting the 90-day bill rate would be up at 4.00% by March 2014. That forecast was wound back to 3.3% in March, 3.2% three months later and is now down at 2.8%.

The good news for borrowers is that, asssuming things pan out as forecast, then home loan rates aren't likely to be going up any time soon either.

Rates flatlining

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Disclaimer: Every possible effort has been made to keep the information in the rates tables as accurate as possible, however, neither the publishers of Mortgage Rates nor anyone engaged to compile these tables accept any liability for inaccuracies or any loss suffered as a result. It is strongly advised that readers check loan details directly with the provider concerned.

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