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OCR on hold till growth and inflation increase

Thursday, January 27th 2011, 2:06PM

Home-owners can be confident floating mortgage rates won't be rising for some time following the Reserve Bank's expected decision to keep interest rates on hold at 3%.

The Reserve Bank says in its statement that it seems prudent to keep the OCR low until the recovery becomes more robust and underlying inflationary pressures increase.

ASB economist Nick Tuffley says despite stabilising, the housing market remains very fragile and unlikely able to withstand rate increases for some time, particularly as house prices continue to decline.

Southern Cross Building Society was the only lender to make a movement this week, cutting its floating rate 70 basis points from 6.95% down to 6.25%.

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Future interest rate hikes softened

The Reserve Bank has kept the OCR at 2.50% as expected, but had lowered its forecast track for the 90 day bill rate by around 60 basis points (0.6%) to a peak of 4.30% by the end of next year.

For borrowers that means floating home loans are not forecast to rise as much as previously forecast. In June the expectation was that the rates would rise 2% in the next 12 months: that figure has now been wound back to 1.4%.

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