How attractive would rates have to be to fix?

Borrowers should stay floating until someone comes along and offers a really attractive fixed rate says BNZ economist Tony Alexander, explaining how attractive that rate would have to be.

Monday, October 11th 2010, 5:42PM

by Jenha White

In the BNZ Weekly Overview he says in an environment where the Americans look set to keep long rates down by printing more money soon there is little risk to floating now.

Alexander says BNZ analysis suggests that over the next two years the floating rate will average 7.30%.

He says the current two-year rate is 6.7% so were it not for the fact BNZ thinks neither fixed or floating rates will go anywhere for awhile, he would say fix.

"But we see little scope for change soon - and even a risk that fixed rates decline given the fall in wholesale funding costs recently."

Alexander says he would forsake the current 6.09% BNZ Total Money floating rate and jump into a two-year fixed rate if someone offered 6.35%.

And to fix three years? That rate is currently 7.15% and BNZ forecasts an average floating rate for the coming three years of 7.6%.

Alexander says he would sacrifice the nice low 6.09% floating rate and opt into three years fixed if offered a rate of 6.5%.

"For your guide I have no insight into whether anyone is going to offer such rates soon and frankly don't expect such large cuts from current rates given rising bank funding costs."

Westpac Weekly Commentary looks at the disappointing pace of growth to date weighed on the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO), which last week showed headline confidence turning negative on balance for the first time since June 2009.

It says the QSBO is likely to reinforce the Reserve Bank's gloomier outlook on near-term growth prospects as revealed in the September Monetary Policy Statement.

"One potential point of concern though, is the absence of any signs of growing slack in the economy, hinting at weak potential as well as actual growth."

ANZ Market Focus says September was hardly a stellar month to be taking such surveys.

"Confidence would not have been helped by the collapse of a major financial institution and the Canterbury earthquake soon after that."

J P Morgan Weekly Prospects says against the QSBO backdrop and with inflation expectations anchored and inflation remaining comfortably within the Reserve Bank's range, there appears little urgency for further tightening.

ASB Business Weekly says in isolation, the QSBO results point to another quarter of subdued economic activity in Q3 which is concerning in light of the much weaker than expected Q2 GDP result released recently.

BNZ Markets Outlook says as soft as some of the QSBO headline indicators were, picking through the information-rich details of the NZIER survey, it was left with a distinct impression that the economy is hanging in there.

"We do not think this survey foretells the death knell for the recovery. For example employment and investment intentions, while far from strong, were around their historical averages."

As such BNZ is still optimistic for 2011 as is ANZ with the tax cuts just delivered, the Rugby World Cup , the Canterbury rebuild following the earthquake and high commodity prices.

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