Greek tragedy derails rate hike certainty

Just as the market and economists were locking in predictions for a June rate hike after a speech by Governor Bollard and strong employment figures last week, the situation in Greece derailed any certainty within 24 hours.  

Monday, May 10th 2010, 5:57PM

by Jenha White

J P Morgan Weekly Prospects says Bollard's speech last week using a truck driver analogy implied that the Reserve Bank is readying to begin moving the policy stimulus, but exactly when the truck driver will decide to "reduce acceleration" will depend on how the economic data evolves.

The speech also validated current market pricing for Official Cash Rate (OCR) hikes over the next year.

The speech ended by noting that the "recovery so far has been full of surprises. There will be more to come".

Speak no more.

Westpac Weekly Commentary notes that within an hour of Bollard's speech the Household Labour Force Survey showed a stunning improvement in the labour market in March quarter.

"Less than 24 hours later, international markets were giving themselves a hernia over a perceived lack of willingness on the part of the European Central Bank to deal with concerns about Sovereign debt in Greece and perhaps beyond."

ASB Business Weekly says the unequivocal strength of the employment figures which showed a 1.1% decline in the unemployment rate, all but sealed the deal for a June hike with the market moving to fully price in a 25 basis point increase in June.

ANZ Market Focus believes an improving labour market has been the missing piece in the puzzle and now that employment is on its way down, the Reserve Bank seemingly has a green light to take its foot off the accelerator.

However, says ASB, dramatic offshore events overnight then saw the market reverse much of the day's movement, dramatically paring back the chances of a June rate hike.

"Global markets began to fret over the European sovereign debt situation once again and riots in Greece cast doubt over the ability of the Greek government to credibly implement much needed fiscal reform, increasing the chance of default on Greek government debt.

"The market was then further spooked by a dramatic (and suspicious) drop in the Dow Jones Industrial average."

BNZ Markets Outlook says the clouding global situation gives further pause for thought.

"It would be a bold Reserve Bank move to downplay the clear signals of a domestic upturn.

"It would be a bolder one to hike in the heart of what could turn out to be another serious phase of global and economic disruption.

It says one thing's for sure.

"Our central bankers will certainly be earning their money over the coming weeks as they formulate their Monetary Policy Statement for 10 June publication."

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