Where exactly is the middle of 2010?

Where exactly is the middle of 2010? That's the question on everyone's lips as we head into the Official Cash Rate (OCR) review this Thursday according to BNZ.

Tuesday, April 27th 2010, 5:19PM

In Markets Outlook it says April certainly isn't the middle of 2010 so there is zero reason to assume the Reserve Bank might start its tightening this week.

"The point of interest is whether the Reserve Bank will point directly to June or July as its start point, or even, as an outside chance, stretch the meaning of the word middle and intimate a September kick off."

Westpac Weekly Commentary believes the Reserve Bank is currently in a sweet spot having held to its commitment to keep interest rates low until mid-2010, and says it is now seeing sufficient evidence of a recovery to carry out its plan for ‘normalisation.'

"The plan, as laid out in the March Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), is for an extended tightening cycle that could see the OCR rise by 3% or more over the next few years.

ASB Business Weekly points out that between the April and June meetings, there are the releases of Q1 employment and the Budget.

"Given the pivotal role these events will play in determining how long the OCR can be left at current stimulatory levels, the Reserve Bank will likely continue to leave the timing of tightening open to both June and July."

ANZ National Market Focus believes the timing of the first hike will be a coin-toss between June and September.

"Starting in July where the market has shifted to remains an option and you'd never rule it out, but starting a cycle from such an extreme starting point should warrant the communication benefits of a full MPS.

"To be fair this didn't pan out on the way down with a July start, but easing cycles tend to be rides down the elevator and tightening cycles climbs up the stairs".

Meanwhile J P Morgan Weekly Prospects says with non-tradable inflation likely to have troughed, however at an elevated level, the Reserve Bank will be wary of leaving the cash rate too low for too long.

J P Morgan continues to look for the first OCR hike in July.

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