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Expert's Views
Some explanations from BNZBNZ's Tony Alexander explains why RBNZ and politicans are wrong, why the next OCR movement will be upwards and what to do now.Friday, June 19th 2009, 9:17AMExpert views ends this week with another good piece from BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander. In his Weekly Overview Alexander explains why the argument from politicians and the Reserve Bank over funding of home loans are wrong. He argues that the OCR is irrelevant to where banks source their home loan funding. The argument makes sense but is curious as the banks have always moved their home loan rates in tandem with OCR movements. That bit he doesn't explain. The other piece of information Alexander imparts is that he predicts the next OCR adjustment will be upwards. The easing cycle is over. The good news is that this increase is sometime next year, he predicts, but it will be earlier than the RBNZ currently suggests. As usual he gives his views on rates and which ones to go for. Here he is in line with other economists - fix short. Read Full Weekly Overview here
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Analysis falls in favour of fixing two or three years Floating rates to rise but not as fast or far as expected Bollard lifts OCR, predicts more moderate pace of increases PRESS RELEASE: RBNZ raises OCR to 3% Economists and markets say interest rates up this week Does weak data mean the RBNZ should stop raising interest rates? |
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Flattening yield curve
The above graph shows the journey in which the home loan interest rates have taken over the past couple of years compared with the five-year median. With the considerable cuts to long-term fixed rates this month and the increases we saw to floating rates in June this year, the yield curve is starting to show signs of flattening out. MORE » |
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